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Using Federal Funds Futures Rates to Predict Federal Reserve Actions

Resource Type
Dataset : survey data
  • Robertson, John C. (Australian National University)
  • Thornton, Daniel L. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Other Title
  • Version 1 (Subtitle)
Publication Date
Free Keywords
Federal Reserve System; monetary policy
  • Abstract

    The federal funds futures rate naturally embodies the market's expectation of the average behavior of the federal funds rate. This research points out that analysts cannot attempt to identify federal policy from the behavior of the federal funds futures rate without making somewhat arbitrary additional assumptions. Also studied is the predictive accuracy of a rule based on the federal funds futures rate from October 1988 through August 1997 using an assumption that is sufficient for partially identifying when the market is expecting a federal action but not for predicting the magnitude of the action. The forecasting rule correctly predicts a target change at the one-month horizon only about one-third of the time. The conclusion is that more research is needed, especially in light of the Federal Open Market Commission's (FOMC) recent practice of disclosing policy decisions immediately after FOMC meetings.
  • Table of Contents


    • DS1: Dataset
Geographic Coverage
  • United States
Collection Mode
  • (1) The file submitted is ND97DATA.RT, an ASCII data file. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

This study is freely available to the general public via web download.
Alternative Identifiers
  • 1180 (Type: ICPSR Study Number)
  • Robertson, John C., Thornton, Daniel L.. Using federal funds futures rates to predict federal reserve actions. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.79, (6), 45-53.1997.

Update Metadata: 2015-08-05 | Issue Number: 6 | Registration Date: 2015-06-15

Robertson, John C.; Thornton, Daniel L. (1998): Using Federal Funds Futures Rates to Predict Federal Reserve Actions. Version 1. Version: v1. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset.