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Do Changes in Reserves Proxy Well for Official Intervention?

Resource Type
Dataset : survey data
  • Neely, Christopher J. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Other Title
  • Archival Version (Subtitle)
Publication Date
Free Keywords
currencies; foreign exchange; monetary policy; monetary reserves
  • Abstract

    The study of foreign exchange intervention has been slowed by the traditional reluctance of central banks to release intervention data to researchers. To circumvent the lack of actual intervention data, researchers often have used publicly available foreign exchange reserves data to proxy for the confidential intervention data. Little research has been done, however, to compare the characteristics of reserves and intervention. In this article, the author addresses that issue by using time-series techniques and measures of correlation to compare American, Swiss, and German monthly intervention and reserves series. Although the raw correlations are modest, ranging from about 0.12 to 0.42, some simple adjustments for seasonality and ERM realignments can increase the correlations in the Swiss and German data. More sophisticated adjustment techniques would be difficult and time-consuming.
  • Table of Contents


    • DS1: Dataset
Geographic Coverage
  • Germany
  • Switzerland
  • United States
  • Global
Collection Mode
  • (1) The file submitted,, contains program and description files. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator if further information is desired.

This version of the study is no longer available on the web. If you need to acquire this version of the data, you have to contact ICPSR User Support (
Alternative Identifiers
  • 1229 (Type: ICPSR Study Number)
  • Is previous version of
    DOI: 10.3886/ICPSR01229.v1
  • Nelly, Christopher J.. Are changes in foreign exchange reserves well correlated with official intervention?. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.82, (5), 17-31.2000.

Update Metadata: 2015-08-05 | Issue Number: 6 | Registration Date: 2015-06-15

Neely, Christopher J. (2000): Do Changes in Reserves Proxy Well for Official Intervention?. Archival Version. Version: v0. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset.