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metadata language: English

Forecasting Inflation and Growth: Do Private Forecasts Match Those of Policymakers?

Version
v1
Resource Type
Dataset : survey data
Creator
  • Gavin, William T. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
  • Mandel, Rachel (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Other Title
  • Version 1 (Subtitle)
Publication Date
2001-06-12
Language
English
Free Keywords
economic growth; Federal Open Market Committee; inflation; monetary policy; prediction
Description
  • Abstract

    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Knowing the Fed's objectives, their forecasts, and recent deviations of the economy from the forecasts should be sufficient to understand how the Fed is making monetary policy. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the FOMC views. For example, they match the policymakers' views as closely as do the Board staff forecasts presented at FOMC meetings. Using alternative forms of the Taylor rule, the authors show that the Blue Chip consensus and the Fed policymakers' forecasts have almost identical implications for the monetary policy process.
  • Table of Contents

    Datasets:

    • DS1: Dataset
Geographic Coverage
  • United States
Collection Mode
  • (1) There were two files submitted, 0105wgp.prg, containing programs, and 0105wgd.xls, containing data. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigators if further information is desired.

Availability
Download
This study is freely available to the general public via web download.
Alternative Identifiers
  • 1242 (Type: ICPSR Study Number)
Publications
  • Gavin, William T., Mandel, Rachel. Forecasting inflation and growth: Do private forecasts match those of policymakers?. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.83, (3), 11-19.2001.

Update Metadata: 2015-08-05 | Issue Number: 6 | Registration Date: 2015-06-15

Gavin, William T.; Mandel, Rachel (2001): Forecasting Inflation and Growth: Do Private Forecasts Match Those of Policymakers?. Version 1. Version: v1. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01242.v1