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Unemployment Insurance Claims and Economic Activity

Resource Type
Dataset : survey data
  • Gavin, William T. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
  • Kliesen, Kevin L. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Other Title
  • Version 1 (Subtitle)
Publication Date
Free Keywords
economic growth rate; economic indicators; economic trends; Gross Domestic Product; insurance claims; labor markets; unemployment; unemployment insurance
  • Abstract

    Economic forecasters pay especially close attention to labor market indicators during periods of economic uncertainty. Labor market data are thought to provide early evidence about changes in the course of the economy. This article examines whether monthly changes in labor market indicators are useful for predicting real GDP. It then examines whether weekly changes in initial and continuing unemployment insurance claims are useful for helping to predict changes in important labor market indicators. Incoming monthly data on nonfarm payroll jobs and the index of aggregate weekly hours help predict changes in real GDP growth, but data on the civilian unemployment rate do not. The authors also find that unemployment insurance claims help to predict changes in monthly labor variables. As others have found, these predictions work best in periods of recession. However, this article shows that there was also some predictive ability during the 1990s expansion.
  • Table of Contents


    • DS1: Dataset
Geographic Coverage
  • United States
Collection Mode
  • (1) Files submitted are 0205wgd.xls, the data, and 0205wgp.prg, the program. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

This study is freely available to the general public via web download.
Alternative Identifiers
  • 1266 (Type: ICPSR Study Number)
  • Gavin, William T., Kliesen, Kevin L.. Unemployment insurance claims and economic activity. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.84, (3), 15-28.2002.
  • Chamlin, Mitchell B., Cochran, John B.. Unemployment, economic theory, and property crime: A note on measurement. Journal of Quantitative Criminology.16, (4), 443-455.2000.
    • ID: 10.1023/A:1007599232183 (DOI)

Update Metadata: 2015-08-05 | Issue Number: 6 | Registration Date: 2015-06-15

Gavin, William T.; Kliesen, Kevin L. (2003): Unemployment Insurance Claims and Economic Activity. Version 1. Version: v1. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset.