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The FOMC's Balance-of-Risk Statement and Market Expectations of Policy Actions

Resource Type
Dataset : survey data
  • Rasche, Robert H. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
  • Thornton, Daniel L. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Other Title
  • Archival Version (Subtitle)
Publication Date
Free Keywords
interest rates; monetary policy; risk assessment; securities
  • Abstract

    In January 2000, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) instituted the practice of issuing a "balance of risks" statement along with their policy decision immediately following each FOMC meeting. The authors evaluate the use of the balance-of-risks statement and the market's interpretation of it. They find that the balance-of-risks statement is one of the factors that market participants use to determine the likelihood that the FOMC will adjust its target for the federal funds rate at their next meeting. Moreover, they find that, on some occasions, the FOMC behaved in such a way as to encourage the use of the balance-of-risks statement for this purpose. The clarifying statements that sometimes accompany these balance-of-risks statements, as well as general remarks made by the Chairman and other FOMC members, often provide additional useful information.
  • Table of Contents


    • DS1: Dataset
Geographic Coverage
  • United States
Collection Mode
  • (1) The file submitted is the data file, 0209rrd.xls. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

This version of the study is no longer available on the web. If you need to acquire this version of the data, you have to contact ICPSR User Support (
Alternative Identifiers
  • 1270 (Type: ICPSR Study Number)
  • Is previous version of
    DOI: 10.3886/ICPSR01270.v1
  • Rasche, Robert H., Thornton, Daniel L.. The FOMC's balance-of-risks statement and market expectations of policy actions. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.84, (5), 37-50.2002.

Update Metadata: 2015-08-05 | Issue Number: 6 | Registration Date: 2015-06-15

Rasche, Robert H.; Thornton, Daniel L. (2003): The FOMC's Balance-of-Risk Statement and Market Expectations of Policy Actions. Archival Version. Version: v0. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset.