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metadata language: English

FOMC Forecasts: Is All the Information in the Central Tendency?

Version
v1
Resource Type
Dataset : survey data
Creator
  • Gavin, William T. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Other Title
  • Version 1 (Subtitle)
Publication Date
2003-06-25
Language
English
Free Keywords
economic planning; Federal Reserve System; monetary policy
Description
  • Abstract

    Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting their economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts are important because they indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. The Fed reports both the range (high and low) of the individual policymakers' forecasts and a truncated central tendency. The central tendency range omits outliers from both the top and the bottom of the full range. The author of this article finds, generally, that the forecasts derived from the full range are at least as good as those derived from the central tendency and, in a few cases, significantly better.
  • Table of Contents

    Datasets:

    • DS1: Dataset
Geographic Coverage
  • United States
Collection Mode
  • (1) The file submitted is the Excel file, 0305wg.xls. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

Availability
Download
This study is freely available to the general public via web download.
Alternative Identifiers
  • 1287 (Type: ICPSR Study Number)
Publications
  • Gavin, William T.. FOMC forecasts: Is all the information in the central tendency?. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.85, (3), 27-46.2003.

Update Metadata: 2015-08-05 | Issue Number: 6 | Registration Date: 2015-06-15

Gavin, William T. (2003): FOMC Forecasts: Is All the Information in the Central Tendency?. Version 1. Version: v1. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01287.v1