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Using Cyclical Regimes of Output Growth to Predict Jobless Recoveries

Resource Type
Dataset : survey data
  • Dueker, Michael J. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Other Title
  • Archival Version (Subtitle)
Publication Date
Funding Reference
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Research Division
Free Keywords
economic growth; economic recovery; employment; labor force; productivity; recession
  • Abstract

    Gaps between output and employment growth are often attributed to transitional phases by which the economy adjusts to shifts in the rate of trend productivity growth. Nevertheless, cyclical factors can also drive a wedge between output and employment growth. This article shows that one measure of cyclical dynamics--the expected output loss associated with a recession--helps predict the gap between output and employment growth in the coming four quarters. This measure of the output loss associated with a recession can take unexpected twists and turns as the recovery unfolds. The empirical results in this paper support the proposition that a weaker-than-expected rebound in the economy can partially mute employment growth for a time relative to output growth.
  • Table of Contents


    • DS1: Dataset
Geographic Coverage
  • United States
Collection Mode
  • (1) Two files, 0603mdp.txt, program file, and 0603mdd.txt, data file, were submitted. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigators if further information is desired.

This version of the study is no longer available on the web. If you need to acquire this version of the data, you have to contact ICPSR User Support (
Alternative Identifiers
  • 1328 (Type: ICPSR Study Number)
  • Is previous version of
    DOI: 10.3886/ICPSR01328.v1
  • Dueker, Michael J.. Using cyclical regimes of output growth to predict jobless recoveries. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.88, ( 2), 145-153.2006.

Update Metadata: 2015-08-05 | Issue Number: 6 | Registration Date: 2015-06-15

Dueker, Michael J. (2006): Using Cyclical Regimes of Output Growth to Predict Jobless Recoveries. Archival Version. Version: v0. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset.