My da|ra Login

Detailed view

metadata language: English

Inflation Expectations and Recovery in Spring of 1933

Resource Type
  • Rua, Gisela
  • Jalil, Andrew (Occidental College)
Publication Date
Free Keywords
inflation expectations; liquidity trap; Great Depression (1929); narrative evidence; regime shift
  • Abstract

    This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts, we show that inflation expectations increased dramatically. Second, using an event-study approach, we identify the effect of the key events that shifted inflation expectations on financial markets. Third, we gather new evidence—both quantitative and narrative—that indicates that the shift in inflation expectations played a causal role in stimulating the recovery.
Temporal Coverage
  • 1932-10-01 / 1933-11-01
    Time period: Sat Oct 01 00:00:00 EST 1932--Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EST 1933
Geographic Coverage
  • United States
This study is freely available to the general public via web download.

Update Metadata: 2016-08-28 | Issue Number: 3 | Registration Date: 2016-06-28

Rua, Gisela; Jalil, Andrew (2016): Inflation Expectations and Recovery in Spring of 1933. Version: 1. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset.