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2018 Montana Election Surveys (MSU-MTN)

Version
1
Resource Type
Dataset : survey data
Creator
  • Parker, David (Montana State University)
  • Raile, Eric (Montana State University)
  • Guenther, Sara (Montana State University)
  • Shanahan, Elizabeth (Montana State University)
Publication Date
2018-12-30
Funding Reference
  • Montana State University - Bozeman
  • Montana Television Network
Free Keywords
Election; US Congress; Montana; Policies; Politics
Description
  • Abstract

    Recommended citation:
    Parker, D., Raile, E., Guenther, S., & Shanahan, E. (2019). 2018 Montana Election Surveys (MSU-MTN) [Data file]. Retrieved from https://www.openicpsr.org

    These polls were funded jointly by the Montana Television Network (MTN) and Montana State University (MSU).

    The MSU-MTN pre-election survey was conducted by the Human Ecology Learning & Problem Solving (HELPS) Lab of Montana State University-Bozeman between September 15 and October 6, 2018. The population for the poll was Montana voters who registered by August 14, 2018. The sample was stratified by state House districts, and then a random sample of 10,400 voters was drawn proportionally from these strata. Sampled individuals received a questionnaire by mail and were asked to return the questionnaire via a self-addressed stamped envelope. Respondents returned 2,079 surveys, a response rate of slightly over 20% based on 10,215 deliverable addresses.

    The population size was 686,791 registered voters. This resulted in a margin of error (MOE) of approximately +/- 2 percentage points. Please note that this figure is an overall approximation given sampling stratification and different response options and response patterns for specific questions. Using a raking method, the data were weighted by age, media market, marital status by gender, and education to match U.S. Census Bureau data on registered Montana voters. Data were also weighted on 2016 presidential vote choice to match vote returns reported by the Montana Secretary of State.

    The MSU-MTN post-election survey was similarly conducted by the HELPS Lab of Montana State University-Bozeman between November 8 and December 14, 2018. Researchers used a panel design, meaning they re-surveyed individuals who had completed the pre-election questionnaire. Respondents returned 1,424 completed questionnaires for a response rate of approximately 68%. The population of registered voters at the time of the election was 711, 844, which produced an overall MOE of approximately +/- 2.6 percentage points. The weights remained the same except for replacing 2016 presidential vote choice with 2018 Senate vote choice.
  • Weighting

    Using a raking method, the data were weighted by age, media market, marital status by gender, and education to match U.S. Census Bureau data on registered Montana voters. Pre-election data were also weighted on 2016 presidential vote choice to match vote returns reported by the Montana Secretary of State. The pre-election weight in the dataset is labeled prewgt. For the post-election survey, the weights remained the same except for replacing 2016 presidential vote choice with 2018 Senate vote choice. The post-election weight is included in the dataset as postwgt.
  • Technical Information

    Response Rates: Pre-election survey: 20.35%
    Post-election survey (panel): 68.49%
Temporal Coverage
  • 2018-09-15 / 2018-10-06
    Time Period: Sat Sep 15 00:00:00 EDT 2018--Sat Oct 06 00:00:00 EDT 2018 (Fall 2018)
  • 2018-11-08 / 2018-12-14
    Time Period: Thu Nov 08 00:00:00 EST 2018--Fri Dec 14 00:00:00 EST 2018 (Fall 2018)
  • 2018-09-15 / 2018-10-06
    Collection Date(s): Sat Sep 15 00:00:00 EDT 2018--Sat Oct 06 00:00:00 EDT 2018 (Fall 2018)
  • 2018-11-08 / 2018-12-14
    Collection Date(s): Thu Nov 08 00:00:00 EST 2018--Fri Dec 14 00:00:00 EST 2018 (Fall 2018)
Geographic Coverage
  • Montana
Sampled Universe
Montana adults registered to vote as of August 14, 2018Smallest Geographic Unit: State
Sampling
The population for the poll was Montana voters who registered by August 14, 2018. For the pre-election survey, the sample was stratified by state House districts, and then a random sample of 10,400 voters was drawn proportionally from these strata. For the post-election survey, researchers used a panel design, meaning they re-surveyed individuals who had completed the pre-election questionnaire.
Collection Mode
  • mail questionnaire~~web-based survey~~

Availability
Download

Update Metadata: 2019-07-22 | Issue Number: 1 | Registration Date: 2019-07-22

Parker, David; Raile, Eric; Guenther, Sara; Shanahan, Elizabeth (2018): 2018 Montana Election Surveys (MSU-MTN). Version: 1. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.3886/E110805V1