The Long Waves of Economic Growth from 1850–1977

Resource Type
Dataset : Survey and aggregate data
  • Glismann, Hans H.
  • Rodemer, Horst
  • Wolter, Frank
Publication Date
  • ZA:
    • Historical Studies Data
  • Abstract

    Part I: Germany By means of a statistical analysis, this study examines the question whether there are long-term fluctuations in the course of the economic development in Germany, and if so, why they occur. On the grounds of a discussion about the hypothesises of lack of capital, overproduction and innovation, an explanatory model for the growth waves has been developed. This model, which is based on an empirical analysis, can be summarised as follows: The long-term development of the national product is mainly determined by the development of investments, which depend on the development of the profit expectations in their turn. In this respect, the development of wages, national consumption, and protection are considered important factors for the definition of long-term profit expectations. Hereby the above-mentioned model is empirically tested. Eventually some economic conclusions are drawn. Part II: An International Comparison In the 1970s, the process of global economic growth weakened considerably as compared to the two preceding decades. This development provoked several explanatory attempts. Within the scope of an empiric study for Germany, the slowed growth of the 1970s has been understood as being the downswing phase of a long-term cycle of development. In doing so, the diagnosed development of the national product was mainly explained by long-term fluctuations of the (functional) distribution of income and the governmental activity, which, on their part, caused long-term ups and downs concerning investment activities due to their influence on profit expectations. In fact, the article faced harsh criticism, which was directed at both the explanatory approach and the under-lying empirical method. This study calculates the deviations of streamlined national product series from the long-term trend; its results show that there have been long-term, more or less distinct fluctuations in the development of the national product of several free-market countries other than Germany. According to the available data, different index numbers were applied to the respective national production. The period examined in this study for every country reaches as far back as data are available. With regard to the results of the empirical analysis of the long-term economic development of Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Soviet Union, it can be stated that - long-term fluctuations of the economic development are not merely restricted to Germany, and that a socialistic economic system presumably does not guarantee a continuous growth either; - the cyclical pattern differs from country to country; - there were parallel developments at the international level; however, these do not develop in a synchronous way. Factual classification of the tables in HISTAT: Part I: Germany Part I: 1. Macroeconomic indicators for the Federal Republic of Germany (1960-1990) Part I: A.1 Net national product and net investments in the Federal Republic of Germany (1850-1990) Part I:A.2 Net national product, net investments, foreign trade values and national consumption (in million D-marks) in Germany (1850-1990) Part I: A.3 Stock yields and profit expectations (in percent) in Germany (1926-1977) Part I: A.4 Actual earnings of employees and unemployment rate (in percent) in Germany (1925-1990) Part I: A.5 The population (in 1,000) in the Federal Republic of Germany and in the German Reich (1850-1913) Part II: International comparison Part II: A.1.Macroeconomic annual production of selected states (1830-1979) Part II: A.2 Investments of selected states (1830-1979) Part II: A.3 Unemployment rate of selected states (in percent) (1887-1979)
Temporal Coverage
  • 1850 / 1977
Geographic Coverage
  • Historical German lands (-1871) (DQDE)
  • German Reich (1871-1945) (DXDE)
  • Germany (DE)
  • England (GB-ENG)
  • Sweden (SE)
  • Italy (IT)
  • United States (US)
  • France (FR)
  • USSR, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (SUHH)
Data and File Information
  • Unit Type: Text Unit
    Number of Units: 150
    Number of Variables: 46
A - Data and documents are released for academic research and teaching.
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Alternative Identifiers
  • ZA8206 (Type: ZA-No.)
  • Glismann, Hans H.; Rodemer, Horst; Wolter, Frank: Zur empirischen Analyse langer Zyklen wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung in Deutschland. Datenbasis und Berechnungsmethoden. Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft 1978. (Kieler Arbeitspapiere, 72)
  • Glismann, Hans H.; Rodemer, Horst; Wolter, Frank: Lange Wellen wirtschaftlichen Wachstums (Replik und Weiterführung). In: Petzina, D.; van Roon, G. (Hrsg.): Konjunktur, Krise, Gesellschaft. Wirtschaftliche Wechsellagen und soziale Entwicklung im 19. und 20. Jahrhundert. Stuttgart: Klett-Cotta 1981, S. 66-106.

Update Metadata: 2021-04-07 | Issue Number: 243 | Registration Date: 2010-07-23