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Replication data for: Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations

Version
V0
Resource Type
Dataset
Creator
  • Eusepi, Stefano
  • Preston, Bruce
Publication Date
2011-10-01
Description
  • Abstract

    This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning. Agents have incomplete knowledge about how market prices are determined and shifts in expectations of future prices affect dynamics. Learning breaks the tight link between fundamentals and equilibrium prices, inducing periods of erroneous optimism or pessimism about future returns to capital and wages which subsequent data partially validate. In a real business cycle model, the theoretical framework amplifies and propagates technology shocks. Moreover, it produces agents' forecast errors consistent with business cycle properties of forecast errors for a wide range of variables from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. (JEL C53, D83, D84, E32, E37)
Availability
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Relations
  • Is supplement to
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.6.2844 (Text)
Publications
  • Eusepi, Stefano, and Bruce Preston. “Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations.” American Economic Review 101, no. 6 (October 2011): 2844–72. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.6.2844.
    • ID: 10.1257/aer.101.6.2844 (DOI)

Update Metadata: 2020-05-18 | Issue Number: 2 | Registration Date: 2019-10-11

Eusepi, Stefano; Preston, Bruce (2011): Replication data for: Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations. Version: V0. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.3886/E112470