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Replication data for: Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

Version
1
Resource Type
Dataset
Creator
  • Dominguez, Kathryn M. E.
  • Shapiro, Matthew D.
Publication Date
2013-05-01
Description
  • Abstract

    This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. We construct a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. We then compare forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.
Availability
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Relations
  • Is supplement to
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.3.147 (Text)
Publications
  • Dominguez, Kathryn M. E, and Matthew D Shapiro. “Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?” American Economic Review 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 147–52. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.3.147.
    • ID: 10.1257/aer.103.3.147 (DOI)

Update Metadata: 2020-05-18 | Issue Number: 2 | Registration Date: 2019-10-12

Dominguez, Kathryn M. E.; Shapiro, Matthew D. (2013): Replication data for: Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?. Version: 1. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.3886/E112613V1