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Replication data for: What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

Version
1
Resource Type
Dataset
Creator
  • Beshears, John
  • Choi, James J.
  • Fuster, Andreas
  • Laibson, David
  • Madrian, Brigitte C.
Publication Date
2013-05-01
Description
  • Abstract

    Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial mean reversion. Half of the subjects see a version of this process in which the momentum and partial mean reversion unfold over ten periods ("fast"), while the other subjects see a version with dynamics that unfold over 50 periods ("slow"). Typical subjects recognize most of the mean reversion of the fast process and none of the mean reversion of the slow process.
Availability
Download
Relations
  • Is supplement to
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.3.570 (Text)
Publications
  • Beshears, John, James J Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson, and Brigitte C Madrian. “What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting.” American Economic Review 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 570–74. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.3.570.
    • ID: 10.1257/aer.103.3.570 (DOI)

Update Metadata: 2020-05-18 | Issue Number: 2 | Registration Date: 2019-10-12

Beshears, John; Choi, James J.; Fuster, Andreas; Laibson, David; Madrian, Brigitte C. (2013): Replication data for: What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting. Version: 1. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.3886/E112636V1