Long Waves of Economic Cycles

Resource Type
Dataset : Survey and aggregate data
  • Kondratieff, Nikolai D.
Publication Date
  • ZA:
    • Historical Studies Data
  • Abstract

    Using the term ‘long-termed waves of economic cycles’ it was attempted to estimate the economical development trends of the next decades, while having regard to economical aspects. Already at the beginning of the 20th Century it was attempted to demonstrate the existence of economic cycles of a time period of 47 to 60 years by analysing commodity prices, wage levels, interest rate development, etc. The Phenomenon of long-termed economic cycles was recovered and described by the Russian scientist Nikolai Kondratieff. Kondratieff asks whether he has proved the existence of long waves in a satisfying manner, and if his statistical examinations and their resulting conclusions with regard to long-term cycles justify the use of the term “long waves”. Hereby, he explains, “long waves” meant “that the movement follows a distinct course which could be characterised as ‘waved line’. Furthermore, it can be said that this is not an accidental, but a definitely determined course ...´ (Jöhr, W.A., 1953: Fluctuations of the Economic Cycle [“Die Konjunkturschwankungen”]. Tübingen/Zürich, p. 51). Kondratieff explains the named long waves by the occurence of technological progress, wars and revolutions, the involvement of new countries into the global economy, and the enhancement of gold production. Topics: Data tables in ZA-Database HISTAT: - Coal production and consumption of coal in tons per 1,000 inhabitants (1827-1917) - Crude iron and lead production in England in tons per 1,000 inhabitants (1840-1920) - English nominal wages in gold, index 1892=100 (1789-1913) - Overall sales in the foreign trade of France in francs (1827-1913) - Highest market price of fixed-interest securities in different countries (1814-1922) - Index figures of commodity prices, in gold, in different countries (1780-1922) - Index figures of commodity prices, in paper currency, in different countries (1800-1922).
Temporal Coverage
  • 1780 / 1920
Geographic Coverage
  • England (GB-ENG)
  • France (FR)
  • United States (US)
Collection Mode
  • Official statistics, Data of scientific publications.
Data and File Information
  • Unit Type: Text Unit
    Number of Units: 143
    Number of Variables: 15
A - Data and documents are released for academic research and teaching.
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Alternative Identifiers
  • ZA8269 (Type: ZA-No.)
  • Kondratieff, Nikolai D.(1926): Die langen Wellen der Konjunktur. In: Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, Bd. 56. Tübingen: Mohr, S. 573-609.

Update Metadata: 2021-04-07 | Issue Number: 88 | Registration Date: 2010-07-23