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Replication data for: Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First

Resource Type
  • Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier
  • Obstfeld, Maurice
Publication Date
  • Abstract

    A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced. For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis. (JEL E44, F34, F44, G01, G21, O19)
  • Is supplement to
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.4.1.226 (Text)
  • Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, and Maurice Obstfeld. “Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, no. 1 (January 2012): 226–65.
    • ID: 10.1257/mac.4.1.226 (DOI)

Update Metadata: 2020-05-18 | Issue Number: 2 | Registration Date: 2019-10-13

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Obstfeld, Maurice (2012): Replication data for: Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First. Version: V0. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset.