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Replication data for: Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data

Version
1
Resource Type
Dataset
Creator
  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Elstner, Steffen
  • Sims, Eric R.
Publication Date
2013-04-01
Description
  • Abstract

    This paper uses survey expectations data to construct empirical proxies for time-varying business-level uncertainty. Access to the micro data from the German IFO Business Climate Survey permits construction of uncertainty measures based on both ex ante disagreement and ex post forecast errors. Ex ante disagreement is strongly correlated with dispersion in ex post forecast errors. Surprise movements in either measure lead to significant reductions in production that abate fairly quickly. We extend our analysis to US data, measuring uncertainty with forecast disagreement from the Business Outlook Survey. Surprise increases in forecast dispersion lead to more persistent reductions in production than in the German data. (JEL C53, C83, D81, E23, E27, E32, E37)
Availability
Download
Relations
  • Is supplement to
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.5.2.217 (Text)
Publications
  • Bachmann, Rüdiger, Steffen Elstner, and Eric R Sims. “Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5, no. 2 (April 2013): 217–49. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.5.2.217.
    • ID: 10.1257/mac.5.2.217 (DOI)

Update Metadata: 2020-05-18 | Issue Number: 2 | Registration Date: 2019-10-13

Bachmann, Rüdiger; Elstner, Steffen; Sims, Eric R. (2013): Replication data for: Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data. Version: 1. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.3886/E114269V1