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Replication data for: Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs

Resource Type
  • Andrade, Philippe
  • Gaballo, Gaetano
  • Mengus, Eric
  • Mojon, Benoît
Publication Date
  • Abstract

    Central banks' announcements that rates are expected to remain low could signal either a weak macroeconomic outlook, which would slow expenditures, or a more accommodative stance, which may stimulate economic activity. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to show that, when the Fed gave guidance between 2011:III and 2012:IV, these two interpretations coexisted despite a consensus on low expected rates. We rationalize these facts in a New-Keynesian model where heterogeneous beliefs introduce a trade-off in forward guidance policy: leveraging on the optimism of those who believe in monetary easing comes at the cost of inducing excess pessimism in non-believers.
  • Is supplement to
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180141 (Text)
  • Andrade, Philippe, Gaetano Gaballo, Eric Mengus, and Benoît Mojon. “Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11, no. 3 (July 2019): 1–29.
    • ID: 10.1257/mac.20180141 (DOI)

Update Metadata: 2020-05-18 | Issue Number: 2 | Registration Date: 2019-12-07

Andrade, Philippe; Gaballo, Gaetano; Mengus, Eric; Mojon, Benoît (2019): Replication data for: Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs. Version: V0. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset.