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Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure

Version
1
Resource Type
Dataset
Creator
  • Autor, David (Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER)
  • Dorn, David (University of Zurich and CEPR)
  • Hanson, Gordon (Harvard Kennedy School and NBER)
  • Majlesi, Kaveh (Lund University, Monash University, and CEPR)
Publication Date
2020-05-19
Funding Reference
  • We acknowledge funding from the Russell Sage Foundation (RSF-85-12- 07), the National Science Foundation (SES-1227334), the Swiss National Science Foundation (BSSGI0-155804 and CRSII1-154446), Accenture LLP, the Andrew Carnegie Fellows Program, the C
Free Keywords
Trade and Labor Markets; Political Economy of Trade
Description
  • Abstract

    Has rising import competition contributed to the polarization of U.S. politics? Analyzing multiple measures of political expression and results of congressional and presidential elections spanning the period 2000 through 2016, we find strong though not definitive evidence of an ideological realignment in trade-exposed local labor markets that commences prior to the divisive 2016 U.S. presidential election. Exploiting the exogenous component of rising import competition by China, we find that trade exposed electoral districts simultaneously exhibit growing ideological polarization in some domains—meaning expanding support for both strong-left and strong-right views—and pure rightward shifts in others. Specifically, trade-impacted commuting zones or districts saw an increasing market share for the FOX News channel (a rightward shift), stronger ideological polarization in campaign contributions (a polarized shift), and a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress (a rightward shift). Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority white population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative, while trade-exposed counties with an initial majority-minority population become more likely to elect a liberal Democrat, where in both sets of counties, these gains came at the expense of moderate Democrats (a polarized shift). In presidential elections, counties with greater trade exposure shifted towards the Republican candidate (a rightward shift). These results broadly support an emerging political economy literature that connects adverse economic shocks to sharp ideological realignments that cleave along racial and ethnic lines and induce discrete shifts in political preferences and economic policy.
Temporal Coverage
  • 2000-01-01 / 2016-12-31
    Time Period: Sat Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2000--Sat Dec 31 00:00:00 EST 2016
Geographic Coverage
  • U.S. and China
Availability
Download
Relations
  • Is previous version of
    DOI: 10.3886/E119547V2

Update Metadata: 2020-06-21 | Issue Number: 3 | Registration Date: 2020-06-01

Autor, David; Dorn, David; Hanson, Gordon; Majlesi, Kaveh (2020): Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure. Version: 1. ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.3886/E119547V1