Data and Code for: "Searching for a Better Life: Predicting International Migration with Online Search Keywords"

Resource Type
  • Groeger, Andre (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
  • Heidland, Tobias (Kiel University / IfW)
Publication Date
  • Abstract

    Migration data remains scarce, particularly in the context of developing countries. We demonstrate how geo-referenced online search data can be used to measure migration intentions in origin countries and predict migration flows. Our approach provides strong additional predictive power for international migration flows when compared to reference models from the migration and trade literature. We provide evidence, based on survey data, that our measures partly reflect genuine migration intentions and that they outperform any of the established predictors of migration flows in terms of predictive power, especially in the bilateral within-dimension. Our findings contribute to the literature by (1) providing a novel way for the measurement of migration intentions, (2) allowing real-time predictions of current migration flows ahead of official statistics, and (3) improving the performance of conventional models of migration flows. (JEL-codes: F22, C82, J61, O15)
This study is freely available to the general public via web download.
  • Is version of
    DOI: 10.3886/E126881
  • Böhme, Marcus H., André Gröger, and Tobias Stöhr. “Searching for a Better Life: Predicting International Migration with Online Search Keywords.” Journal of Development Economics 142 (January 2020): 102347.
    • ID: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.04.002 (DOI)

Update Metadata: 2020-11-18 | Issue Number: 1 | Registration Date: 2020-11-18