Data and code for: The looming threat of tariff hikes: entry into exporting under trade agreement renegotiation

Resource Type
Dataset : administrative records data
  • Crowley, Meredith (University of Cambridge)
  • Han, Lu (University of Liverpool)
  • Exton, Oliver (University of Cambridge)
Publication Date
Funding Reference
  • Economic and Social Research Council of the United Kingdom, UK in a Changing Europe Senior Fellowship
    • Award Number: ES/T000732/1
  • Economic and Social Research Council of the United Kingdom, Brexit Priority Grant
    • Award Number: ES/R001553/1
Free Keywords
Brexit; trade agreements; exports; import tariffs
  • Abstract

    We examine how the looming threat of tariff hikes under a trade agreement renegotiation impacts firm entry into a trading partner's market by exploiting uncertainty over the future UK-EU trade relationship brought about by the June 2016 Brexit referendum. Using the universe of UK export transactions at the firm and product level, we find that uncertainty over future market access to the EU deterred entry modestly in the months immediately after the Brexit vote, but the deterrent effect increased over time.
Temporal Coverage
  • 2012-01-01 / 2016-12-31
    Time Period: Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2012--Sat Dec 31 00:00:00 EST 2016
Geographic Coverage
  • European Union
  • United Kingdom
  • World
Sampled Universe
Firms exporting goods from the United Kingdom between 2012 and 2016. .
Collection Mode
  • Data accessible in Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs Datalab after an application process. 

This study is freely available to the general public via web download.
  • Has version
    DOI: 10.3886/E117922V1
  • Crowley, Meredith A., Oliver Exton, and Lu Han. “The Looming Threat of Tariff Hikes: Entry into Exporting under Trade Agreement Renegotiation.” AEA Papers and Proceedings 110 (May 1, 2020): 547–51.
    • ID: 10.1257/pandp.20201020 (DOI)

Update Metadata: 2020-11-24 | Issue Number: 1 | Registration Date: 2020-11-24